Disclaimer: Compulsive gambling can harm your health and relationships, and leave you in serious debt. If you have a problem with gambling and you’d like to stop, support and treatment is available. To find information, support and counselling on gambling addiction, please visit the NHS website: www.bit.ly/NHSGambling

A WEEK before the Derby Festival and two weeks before Royal Ascot, this intermediate weekend as per normal is one of the weakest of the whole racing year. What makes analysing racing more difficult this afternoon is the forecast change in the weather, with the recent very warm spell set to break and rain set to shower across the country.

That means the main meeting, moved from Haydock Park to Carlisle, will be hard to dissect with a decent amount of rain expected at the Cumbrian track from Friday.

Set to be the biggest afternoon of racing at the track with a Group Three, a Listed event and a Heritage Handicap on this fabulous eight-race card, I expect a huge crowd there.

The Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes looks a fair renewal with eight runners set to go to post with last year’s winner, ESTRANGE (3.10) set to go off a very short favourite. Connections will be delighted to hear that the rains are on their way, even if only to take the sting out of the ground. 

This daughter of Night of Thunder has been difficult to train, just seven career starts, but when right she is very high class and a repeat of last year’s win over Shaha would suffice here, with possibly Azaniya the biggest danger, especially as the Owen Burrows-trained charge already has a run under her belt.

The Achilles Stakes over five furlongs looks a cracking renewal, with several of the eight runners being familiar foes who have clashed repeatedly over the past few years. Of course, there is a significant difference between running this race at the flat Haydock Park track and tackling a much stiffer test at Carlisle in Cumbria.

I reckon that change of venue should suit WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (2.33) who has a length to find with Rogue Lightning on recent Al Uqda form from last year. However, this track may well suit the Kevin Ryan trained runner better and good ground would be the perfect surface for this former Abernant Stakes winner.

The big handicap of the day will be the Silver Bowl for three-year-olds over the round mile.

Last week before the race was called off at the Merseyside track, Langstone was the big betting move of the day. I actually napped the Clive Cox runner, but I have to say I am a little bit worried about his draw in stall 12. It could be that it will suit the son of Mayson better as he should get a nice tow into this valuable contest, but his market rival, Princling is much better drawn this time around in box number three.

But the value call a week on from the original date of the race could come in the form of INISHBEG (3.45). Kevin Ryan’s charge was a ready winner of his maiden at Thirsk and you can forget his subsequent run in a tough York handicap thereafter as he had to race very wide from the get go and saw way too much daylight to do himself justice.

Dropped 2lbs down to 85 and with a fair slot in the stalls this time around, I am hoping that he will get some kind of decent cover and then be produced up the final climb. Any rain will not be a problem for him as he ran well on old/softish ground at Redcar as a two-year-old.

OPPORTUNITY (1.30) could well be the best bet on the card in the opening mile and a half handicap. I was at Ascot when this lightly raced son of the great Frankel was a huge eye-catcher behind the nicely treated runaway winner Wine Dark Sea. I am surprised that the handicapper only put the Gosden-trained runner up to a mark of 92 and a win here, after he was hardly given the best ride by James Doyle, would most probably see him sneak into the field for the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot at a track he quite obviously has unfinished business at.

As far as the rest of the meeting is concerned at the Lake District track, I also fancy the claims of WILD CLARY (2.00) and MR KING (5.28) at a big price under Robert Havlin. The last named has finally returned to a handicap mark underneath 80 for only the second time in his career since winning a three-year-old handicap at Roscommon in July of 2023.

After switching from Iain Jardine to Geoffrey Harker, the six-year-old ran much better than his finishing position suggested following a seven-month break when sixth of nine to Rainbow Nebula at Redcar. Beaten some four and three quarter lengths that day, I have marked him up for that comeback run when he only backed out just over a furlong out. That run should have put the selection straight and now is the time to back him at double figure odds.

Over at Chester, there are some nice prizes up for grabs and the race I am most interested in sees PALMAR BAY (3.30) under top weight in a class two, seven furlong handicap. Nicely drawn in stall five here, the Ralph Beckett trained runner looked to be running out of his class when racing in the Listed Spring Trophy, but outran his price of 40/1 when an eight-length fourth behind the classy Lake Forest.

It is a big day of racing at Beverley today with the Hilary Needler Trophy alongside the Beverley Two-Year-Old Trophy. The first named may well go the way of KODI BEAR LIGHT (2.15). Karl Burke’s runner was hugely impressive when making all at Thirsk in a fair time last time out and could have too much for the likes of The Can Can Queen and the well-bred newcomer Cosmic Mystery.

Finally, at Lingfield Park in the evening have a second look at DUKE ORSINO (6.12). He raced a shade too keenly last time out at Yarmouth and if that run has taken the freshness out of him, expect a better performance here.