Disclaimer: Compulsive gambling can harm your health and relationships, and leave you in serious debt. If you have a problem with gambling and you’d like to stop, support and treatment is available. To find information, support and counselling on gambling addiction, please visit the NHS website: www.bit.ly/NHSGambling

MANY punters and pundits alike have been suggesting that this afternoon’s renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes will be a vintage event, but that has been well and truly quashed on the head with just five runners set to go to post for the mile-and-a-half group one event at Ascot.

With no three-year-olds in sight it makes this year’s race just another disappointing renewal and we know exactly how the race will be run with Continuous set to be used as a pace-maker for stable-mate Jan Bruegel. The last named needs a proper test at this trip, which is something he got on the rain-softened ground at Epsom when he outstayed his main market rival here Calandagan in the Coronation Cup. 

I thought that Mickael Barzalona misjudged the ride on the French raider by going for home way too soon and therefore setting the race up as a slug-fest through the last two furlongs. Yes, he will be better suited to this more orthodox track and yes the going will be more to his liking, but if Jan follows his pace-maker and gets the fractions right I find it hard to see the placings being reversed.

Rebel’s Romance has yet to prove himself at this level and as game and admirable a horse as he is, unless two or three of the other jockeys make a mess of this, third place may well be his best aim.

Which leads me in the direction of the sole filly in the line-up, KALPANA (4.10). Andrew Balding continues to have a cracking season and with this daughter of Study of Man he has a filly who is unexposed at the trip, only her second run at a mile-and-a-half, with one of those runs coming over the course and distance last October when she won the Fillies and Mare on Champions Day here. Any of the forecast showers in the air certainly won’t inconvenience her and getting 3lbs from the colts I feel she has more than a fighting chance of landing this famous contest which Andrew’s father, Ian, landed way back in 1971 with the legend of Mill Reef.

The big betting race of the day is the International Heritage Handicap at 3.00 with 22 runners spread right across the track over the seven-furlong trip.

Bunbury Cup runner-up Aalto is likely to be near the head of the market, but he has twice run poorly at the track including a disappointing ninth in last year’s renewal. Billyjoh was just behind him in that Newmarket contest and is just preferred to reverse that form, but is a devilishly difficult horse to win with and instead I have plumped for an each-way play with GALERON at a mighty price.

The Charlie Hills-trained runner was a fair tool when running Down Under and made a lovely start to his career in Britain with a cracking fifth in the Lincoln Handicap. However, since then the five-year-old has run two moderate contests before a much more promising seventh of 12 at Sandown Park behind easy winner Classic. He made good headway from two furlongs out that day only for his effort to bottom out inside the final half-furlong, eventually beaten some four-and-a-half lengths.

Set to run off the same mark here of 99, I fancy he can take another step forward today with the drop back down to seven furlongs a plus. If his rider can hold him up for as long as possible I think that the bay gelding can outrun his ante-post odds of around 40/1.

Of the remaining runners in this big field I also have plenty of regard for Array, plenty better than he showed last time out at Newcastle, and Lord Bertie who is beginning to become more reasonably weighted.

The class two, one-mile Handicap at 3.35 looks another good betting heat and may go the way of the Richard Hannon trained TALIS EVOLVERE. He ran a promising 11th of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup (drawn on the unfavoured far side), but drawn down the centre here in box number 13 Sean Levey will have a choice of which side to go.

Of the other races on the card, DANCE TO THE MUSIC (1.40) can retain her unbeaten record in the Princess Margaret Stakes, while the concluding five-furlong handicap at 5.15 looks a tough affair. Had Woolhampton drawn a better box (one here) I would fancy off a mark of 84, but I also need to see more give in the ground for her, so instead I am swayed in the direction of COVER UP.

The Simon and Ed Crisford trained charge wasn’t disgraced in midfield in the Wokingham Handicap and this looks a shade easier over a trip which probably suits him a bit better. The likes of Toca Madera (ridden too prominently over course and distance last time out) and three-year-old Tropical Storm are also respected.

The ground will be on the easy side of good at York and that should suit ALEEZDANCER (2.00). The selection finally bounced back to form at Pontefract last time out and a 4lbs penalty here could be be negated by the slightly slower ground at a track which seems to suit his run style. A course and distance winner here off 91 last year, he is set to race off exactly the same mark this afternoon.

GREEN IMPACT (2.40) is taken to beat his elders in the Group Two York Stakes, while I shall be having a nice interest on BOWOOD (4.25) in the one-mile handicap as long as his box draw of 15 doesn’t inconvenience him too much off what looks a very tempting mark of 71 from a stable just beginning to run into form.

Elsewhere, have a second look at LUNARIO (Chester, 2.45) and HOSANNA POWER (Newcastle, 3.40). The last named to my eyes doesn’t really get home over 10 furlongs and was then ridden too prominently last time out at Hamilton. A hold-up ride from a good draw should see him go very close to landing a second career win and his first on Tapeta.