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THE big betting race of the weekend, The December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Cheltenham, 1.50), looks a real conundrum with bookmakers likely to offer 4/1 the field, and I must admit to have changed my mind about the likely winner several times over the past 72 hours.

Paul Nicholls undoubtedly has a strong hand with the well-backed Monmiral (sure to be tight fit for his first run in 245 days, and with a wind operation under his belt) and the race fit Il Ridoto.

However, I think they have now been fully found in the market place and I am going to go out on a limb and back the outsider and bottom weight RAILWAY HURRICANE. True, a strike rate over fences of one from 25 hardly inspires confidence, but he has been placed on 11 occasions and with conditional Conor Stone Walsh taking 5lbs off his back, he will no longer be racing from out of the handicap.