FORGET drugs. Forget democracy. The real issue behind Donald Trump’s pillaging of international law and the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro is a last ditch attempt to save the dollar.

Labour’s reluctance to say that the abduction of a foreign head of state is a breach of international law is just a low-water mark in British politics. The real politics behind Trump’s adventurism is both more murky and more interesting. In the end, the loser will be Trump not Venezuela.

The dollar, not the drugs

Trump’s economics are a disaster for the US. His tariff wars and wealth transfers to the super-rich are held together by the Federal Bank’s ability to print all the dollars it likes, just to hold their economy together.

It can do this because of a 1974 deal struck between Henry Kissinger and Saudi Arabia that the world’s oil would be traded in US dollars. In return, the US would arm and protect Saudi Arabia.

This turned the petro-dollar into the global reserve currency. The Fed could print as much as it liked. All countries had to hold US dollars if they wanted to buy oil. Only the US could buck the borrowing rules that applied to other states… as long as no one changed the rules.

Saddam Hussain tried to do so in 2000, announcing that Iraq would sell its oil in euros. After the US invasion, oil pricing was shipped back into dollars. In 2009, Muammar Gaddafi tried to do the same, proposing to trade oil in an African, gold-backed currency, to be called the “gold dinar.” The idea died with him.

Then, in 2018, Venezuela announced that it too would “free itself from the dollar.” This became a much bigger threat.

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of oil reserves; some 20 per cent of the world’s available oil. This is more than anywhere else on the planet. But since 2018, countries have been buying Venezuelan oil in yuan, euros, rubles… anything but the dollar.

Moreover, China had now developed CIPS — an alternative payments system that by-passes the US/Western SWIFT currency transfer system. A parallel framework for transfer payments already exists, with China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at its heart. It operates through 4,800 banks in 185 countries. Dollarisation is beginning to die.

This is the US’s worst nightmare. It might soon have to work to the same fiscal rules as everyone else. They would have to pay for their own debt rather than making others do so.

And if the petro-dollar collapses who will pay for US military escapades, the everlasting handouts to Israel, the arm-locking of trade deals?

The death of a silver lining

If this hadn’t been enough to prompt Trump’s act of piracy then the lure of silver certainly would have. For silver too threatens a crisis in the US economy.

For some time, speculators have gambled on silver prices, Banks have been underwriting “paper silver” acquisitions — to the tune of 20 times the amount of real silver in existence.

The casino game looked secure until China announced that, as of January 1 2026, it would require all of China’s silver processors to hold an export licence in order to do so. Virtually nothing is currently being exported. Global markets are in a state of shock and panic. Several big US banks will go bust if silver prices spiral.

But that’s what is starting to happen. After years of prices being held down by the over-issuing of “paper silver” notes, markets are waking up to a different reality.

Huge economic sectors — from IT to solar panels to conventional (and EV — electric vehicle) cars and home electronics — are dependent on the high conductivity of silver components.

Trump can strut around with his tariffs but in the end if China controls the trade he will dance to their tune. Venezuela, however, offered Trump a lifeline.

The comfort of Christ’s tomb

Global supplies of silver are mainly concentrated in Peru, Russia and China, but Venezuela contributes 12 per cent of global supply. Moreover, its central bank held some 850 tons of processed silver in store. Here was something Trump could wave under the nose of the Chinese and strut his independence.

But something went wrong, badly wrong.

In the hours of darkness over Christmas it all went missing. Some 847 tons of silver disappeared from Venezuela’s central bank. This was the nation’s entire strategic silver reserve. Le Carre would have loved it. Trump did not.

When Trump’s troops or lackeys opened the Venezuelan vaults they were empty. Unlike Christ’s tomb, it will have felt more like insurrection than resurrection.

The silver had been loaded from a Venezuelan military airbase onto Chinese and Russian planes and flown, via a Caribbean stopover, to destinations in Russia and China. This was a back-up plan in anticipation of an invasion. But it quickly morphed into something even bigger.

Suddenly, New York’s silver market began to go crazy. People were buying “options” in anticipation of a price hike (and a quick sale). I say “people” but this wasn’t the likes of you and me.

Average bids were around $50m and buyers knew they would provoke a market crisis. By the time trading was halted silver prices had risen dramatically and the speculators had cashed in. Their intention was to accelerate a US financial crisis that everyone knows is coming.

For those interested, there’s a fantastic YouTube commentator called “the Asian Guy” who charts the market crisis we are heading in to.

Trump may have his show trial but he doesn’t have his 30 pieces of silver. Moreover, China has its legal contracts for oil purchases (in yuan) and won’t dance to the dollar.

It’s not at all clear that Trump can deliver a Venezuelan government that will dance with him at all. And around his feet, the US stock market could begin to crumble.

I have no doubts that Keir Starmer will want to “take stock of all this evidence” before taking a position, but for the less squeamish the evidence of where we are is clear.

• Forget a “rules-based international order,” vanity power-politics has taken over.

• The US is no longer anyone’s friend. Relationships are transactional and temporary.

• For “security,” Britain must strengthen the European cultural ties it remains closest to.

• Get out of the monetary exchange system Trump is using to freeze the accounts of his critics. If Europe can offer one, brilliant. If not, join CIPS until we have an alternative of our own.

• Ditch the obsession with “growth.” “Resilience” and repair will become the cornerstones of tomorrow’s economics. Social inclusion, solidarity, soil and security will be what holds us together through the wild climate times ahead.

And if you are looking for visionary leadership, start from within your own communities and localities. For the moment, at least, Parliament is out to lunch.